Welcome back to the MMANews.com UFC betting tips and plays guide, This week is a more compact card, with a lot of exciting, if not overlooked bouts to enjoy.
Headlined by a pair of ferocious strikers with a taste for blood, Calvin Kattar vs Arnold Allen has huge implications for the featherweight division. The card is a shorter one than usual, with eleven fights in total. What makes it fun, is that the majority of the fights take place at 185 lbs or above. For the unaware, it tends to be the higher the weight class, the higher the likelihood of a finish. My job is to try and decide which of the combatants is going to be the hammer, and which the nail.
As always, we have straight bets, parlays, and props to try and make your UFC betting weekend a slightly more lucrative one.
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Main Event Bets
Calvin Kattar (-110) is on a streak of three fight-of-the-night honors in a row. 1-2 in the aforementioned wars, his stock has dropped very little, due to the violent nature of the clashes. Even in losing a split decision to Josh Emmett, he remains ranked number 5.
He takes on bang-it-out Brit Arnold Allen(-110). Allen is undefeated in nine UFC bouts, most recently finishing Dan Hooker at UFC London in March. Collecting his biggest scalp to date created a lot of buzz around the brawler, who tries to inch closer to that ever-elusive title shot.
The bookmakers have this one set at dead even, and it is hard to disagree. Allen has all the momentum in the world, but Kattar’s time in the cage with the likes of Max Holloway could be crucial. Kattar is the bigger man, and the pair grappling looks to be a stalemate. This really is as tight a match-up as they get, but we need to find a separating factor.
We go with Arnold Allen to get the victory. Kattar has a far more loose defense and absorbs on average 5 more strikes per minute than Allen while being 3% less accurate. Look for Kattar to have a decent first round, and get picked apart later.
Arnold Allen to win at (-110).
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Allen Main Card Bets
Tim Means vs Max Griffin
In the co-main event, Tim Means (+150) takes on another long-tenured veteran in Max Griffin (-175). In another prophesied war, a lot of things go out the window. Both are coming into this one on a loss, and can’t really afford to make it two in a row, while on the wrong side of 35.
Means lost via D’Arce choke to Kevin Holland after a year-long layoff. Prior to the bout, the fighter was on a three-fight win streak. At 38 years old, it doesn’t seem all that plausible for long breaks to be to the benefit of a combatant. At his best, “Dirty Bird” is a hard-nosed brawler who thrives in the ugliness of close-quarters combat.
Max Griffin himself is 36, although, in his previous fight, it was a much closer affair. Losing in March to Neil Magny via split decision is not an embarrassing loss at all. Magny is a foil for many a good fighter and having it be close lets us gauge that Griffin is operating at a decent level still. While tempting to go for Max Griffin, let’s try placing our faith in both making it to the other side of the bell. Fight to go the distance at (-163).
Jared Vanderaa vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
In a main card heavyweight showdown, Jared Vanderaa vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta looks to be set in place to deliver a knockout. Vanderaa has lost his last four bouts, while Cortes-Acosta is debuting at 7-0 following a contender series knockout win. It would be unwise to spend too much time overthinking this one.
Cortes-Acosta has boxed in the past, and that is where his strengths lie. He doubles his opponent’s strike output rate in this contest, and that is bad for Vanderaa. We take Acosta to win by stoppage at (+105), with a small prop bet on either fighter to win in round 3 at (+700).
Tresan Gore vs Josh Fremd
In what is one of the stranger card placement decisions of the night, the 3-2, Tresan Gore takes on yet-to-win in the UFC Josh Fremd… On the main card. Gore last won outside the UFC also, and at 3-2, it is strange to see him still on the roster, let alone this high up a card.
Gore has many physical attributes that are desirable in a fighter but is yet to show himself as a UFC-level fighter. In Fremd, I think he is up against it once again. Although losing a decision, in the end, going the distance with Anthony Hernandez is no small task. At (+150), Fremd stops Gore and proves himself better than many initially thought.
Dustin Jacoby vs Khalil Rountree
In the main card opener, we might see a kick fest like few we have ever witnessed. Although up and down in regard to wins and losses, Khalil Rountree (+150) at his best is an animal. After a self-discovery mission to Thailand gone right, he now possesses a Muay-Thai game that is unrivaled in brutality.
In Dustin Jacoby(-175) though, he takes on an annoyingly crafty striker. On a four-fight win streak, he looked to have stepped his aggression up as he stopped Da Un Jung. As a fan, Rountree by knockout looks like a tempting bet. But as a bettor, we must face facts. Jacoby outranks his opponent in all stat categories, and mutual opponents are all in favor of Jacoby.
It is unclear just how Jacoby will approach the bout, as he is diverse in his game planning. We take the straight win at (-175).
Best Of The Prelims
As always, we come to my favorite part of the fight card, the prelims. There is plenty of value this week, and we start with the prelim headliner. Roman Dolidze takes on Philip Hawes at middleweight in another bout bound for fireworks. Hawes to stop Dolidze is the bet here, with (+160) a fair price.
We are taking a chance on underdog Joseph Homes, as he takes on Jun Yong Park. He is available at around (+187). Holmes has an 80-inch reach, impressive for a middleweight and 7 inches more than his foe. Combining this with the fact his opponent typically has worse striking defense and is hit more often, this looks like a very good price.
Carlos Mota makes his debut, responding to a time of crisis in the UFC. For the uninitiated, Mota is one of the hardest-hitting 125 lb fighters on the regional scene. He takes on Cody Durden, who has often been put in the position of sacrificial lamb to the new hottest prospects. If is n very short notice, however, Mota will probably want to get the finish, at (+125).
Our last selection is a very small bet on the debuting Joshua Weems, who takes on Christian Rodriguez in his UFC debut. Weems takes on an underwhelming opponent to start out with, and at (+300) for a win, and (+500) for a finish, a small bet on each may be wise.
Phil Hawes, Dustin Jacoby, Josh Fremd, Waldo Corets Acosta, Arnold Allen. $10 returns $130.63.
UFC Vegas 63 Full Card Predictions
Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen – Arnold Allen
Tim Means vs. Max Griffin – Max Griffin
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa – Waldo Cortes Acosta
Josh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore – Josh Fremd
Dustin Jacoby vs. Khalil Rountree – Dustin Jacoby
Phil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze – Phil Hawes
Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima – Macros Rogerio de Lima
Joseph Holmes vs. Jun Yong Park – Joseph Holmes
Chase Hooper vs. Steve Garcia – Chase Hooper
Cody Durden vs. Carlos Mota – Carlos Mota
Christian Rodriguez vs. Joshua Weems – Joshua Weems
UFC Betting Big Price Plays
Max Griffin in round two @ +850
Dustin Jacoby in round three @ +1000
Macros Rogerio de Lima by K.O in round one @ +350
Carlos Mota by K.O in round one @ +350
Hopefully, everyone has another good week of UFC betting. With so much combat sports activity this weekend, including the Paul vs Silva boxing match, it will be a busy one. If you are following my picks, be sure to do so in moderation, and add your own research into the equation.
Let us know how you get on, over on our Twitter, and until next time folks, stay lucky.
Who is your pick of the weekend?