UFC Vegas 86 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) sets the stage for Super Bowl Sunday this weekend (Sat., Feb. 10, 2024) when Joe Pyfer battles Jack Hermansson inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 86 also features Dan Ige’s Featherweight dust up with Andre Fili and another pair of Middleweight battles pitting action men Robert Bryczek and Gregory Rodrigues against Ihor Potieria and Brad Tavares, respectively.

Need snack and booze money for the big game? Let’s load you up …

UFC Fight Night: Moicano v Dober

What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 85?

Landon Quinones

The dude just didn’t keep his foot on the gas. He was having plenty of success whenever he put Marquel Mederos on the back foot but whether it was the reactive shots ore his own unwillingness to commit, he let Mederos creep back into the fight and steal the last two rounds.

Stoliarenko/Carolina Under 2.5

Stoliarenko got inches away from the armbar in the first round and then Carolina stopped her less than three minutes past the cutoff for this to hit anyway. It would have stung less if they’d gone the distance, obviously.

Drew Dober

Imagine that you’re Drew Dober. You’ve just stolen the second round with a ground-and-pound flurry, you’re winning the standup in the third, and Renato Moicano clearly lacks the juice to bully you to the mat anymore. All you have to do is keep finding underhooks when he ties up, keep striking, and avoid doing anything stupid.

Instead, you try a lateral drop and then question the life choices that brought you here.

Azat Maksum

That first round knockdown really backfired on him. He pared all the variety out of his striking in favor of chasing that straight right over and over, then failed to adjust when Johnson got the distance down and stopped feeding him counters on a silver platter … alas.

Thomas Petersen

I said going in that Jamal Pogues’ mix of sharp, straight punches and solid takedown defense would give Petersen issues. I assumed that Pogues would have another second round meltdown like he did against Mick Parkin and I was wrong.

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes v Aspinall

What Went Right?

Themba Gorimbo, Molly McCann and Jeong Yeong Lee

No controversy there, just overwhelming dominance — nicely done!

UFC 271: Jeremiah Wells v Blood Diamond

UFC Vegas 86 Odds For The Under Card:

Daniel Marcos (-245) vs. Aoriqileng (+200)

I’m not going to pretend that Marcos’ “win” over Davey Grant inspired a lot of confidence, but he can punch and he can wrestle, which is more than I trust Aoriqileng to deal with at this stage in “The Mongolian Murderer’s” career.

Hyder Amil (-198) vs. Fernie Garcia (+164)

It’s probably best to skip. Garcia is undersized and a huge underachiever, but he’s also a capable boxer when not struggling with takedowns and Amil is a fairly rudimentary slugger.

Zac Pauga (-125) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+105)

Might as well go for Pauga at near-even odds. He’s mediocre, but still much more accomplished than Guskov, not to mention the better grappler. Plus, while Pauga does have that ugly loss to Mohammed Usman under his belt, Guskov got torched by a former Welterweight in “Slava” Vasilevsky, and I’d consider getting clonked by a Heavyweight less of a red flag than that.

Jeremiah Wells (-148) vs. Max Griffin (+124)

That line seems overly generous to Griffin. Simply recall that Wells has won four of five in the Octagon and was up two rounds on Carlston Harris before fumbling, while Griffin is 5-6 since out-classing Mike Perry. Griffin consistently falls short in his biggest fights and is on the wrong end of the power and wrestling equation, so slap some down on Wells.

Devin Clark (-218) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+180)

Absolutely give me Clark here. “Brown Bear” — though extremely flawed — has a significant grappling advantage and is quite a bit less fragile than Prachnio. You might even consider the Under 2.5 at +140 just based on Prachnio’s nonexistent chin.

Loma Lookboonmee (-270) vs. Bruna Brasil (+220)

Skip it. As much as I love Lookboonmee, she does a great job of making things harder on herself.

Bolaji Oki (-310) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+250)

Oki is going to smoke Hadzovic and you can quote me on that. His striking runs circles around Hadzovic’s and he even has some wrestling to fall back on should Hadzovic somehow find momentum. Consider the Under 1.5 at +130, too; Hadzovic’s tough to finish, but the man ate over 100 significant strikes from a shot-to-pieces Yancy Medeiros and he’s fighting a nasty puncher.

Nevermind, Hadzovic’s out and Timothy Cuamba’s in, assuming the Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC) is sadistic enough to let this matchup happen. Knowing NSAC, that’s not even a question.

Carlos Prates (-265) vs. Trevin Giles (+215)

The line is a little wide for my taste. Prates is a terror of a sharpshooter, but he also can’t wrestle. While I’ve been harsh on Giles for his string of poor performances since leaving UFC to go to cop school in 2018, he’s got enough in his arsenal to really bother Prates and his win over Preston Parsons is aging well.

UFC 292: Sterling v O’Malley

UFC Vegas 86 Odds For The Main Card:

Joe Pyfer (-245) vs. Jack Hermansson (+200)

A Hermansson flyer seems like the way to go. Gerald Meerschaert is the only above-average opponent of Pyfer’s career — smashing no-hopers like Alen Amedovski and underachievers like Abdul Razak Alhassan doesn’t convince me that he’s ready for primetime. He’s having his first five-round bout against a dangerous veteran who hasn’t lost two straight in more than one decade, which doesn’t scream -245 to me. “The Joker” should still have enough tricks up his sleeve.

Dan Ige (-175) vs. Andre Fili (+145)

This is a little too close for comfort. I give Fili the edge but he can be clipped and Ige’s hard to get rid of. Indeed, all signs point to a controversial decision and I’m trying to take care of my heart.

Gregory Rodrigues (-245) vs. Brad Tavares (+200)

I’m on the “Robocop” train until the wheels fall off. Tavares notoriously struggles with heavier hitters and will be the lesser grappler here. There’s always the off-chance that he cracks Rodrigues’ inconsistent chin out of nowhere, but with only one (technical) knockout win in the last decade, that doesn’t seem likely.

Michael Johnson (-125) vs. Darrius Flowers (+105)

Leave it alone and just enjoy the chaos.

Robert Bryczek (-198) vs. Ihor Potieria (+165)

Bryczek was an extremely enticing underdog against original opponent Albert Duraev, and though these lines aren’t quite as juicy, they’re still hard to pass up. Potieria has three (technical) knockout losses in his last four fights and is making his first cut to 185 pounds since 2021 on a week’s notice. “Duelist” isn’t out-boxing Bryczek or beating him in a shootout, so put your faith in Polish Power.

Rodolfo Vieira (-120) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+100)

I called for a Vieira bet the last time these two were booked and I’m calling for it again here. Petrosyan’s striking chops are beyond reproach, but his takedown defense sure as hell isn’t; AJ Dobson got him down on three of three attempts and Caio Borralho on four of five. Against Vieira — who boasts one of the nastiest top games in grappling history — that’s not going to cut it.

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Strickland

UFC Vegas 86 Best Bets:

  • Single bet — Zac Pauga: $50 to make $40
  • Single bet — Jack Hermansson: $40 to make $80
  • Single bet — Rodolfo Vieira: $60 to make $50
  • Single bet — Robert Bryzcek: $30.30
  • Single bet — Clark/Prachnio Under 2.5: $30 to make $42
  • Parlay — Daniel Marcos and Devin Clark: $50 to make $52.70
  • Parlay — Jeremiah Wells and Gregory Rodrigues: $40 to make $54.38

Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili seems fun and Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria will be mayhem while it lasts. In other words, UFC Vegas 86 could be worse? See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2024: $600
Current Total: $601.57


Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 86 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 86: “Pyfer vs. Hermansson” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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