Green Vs. Miller Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight veterans Bobby Green and Jim Miller this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 300.

There’s nothing I appreciate more than two long time veterans with just left in the tank. Green has been fighting consistently since 2008 and is 37 years old, yet that didn’t stop “King” from blitzing unbeaten up-and-comer Grant Dawson for a 33-second knockout win last year. He’s back in the rankings for the third time now despite no longer being at his peak — a clear display of talent and skill alike.

Miller, meanwhile, is defying all expectations. At 40 years of age, Miller has seemingly fully recovered from his longterm battle with Lyme disease — how is that even possible? — to win five of his last six fights, all via stoppage.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

UFC Fight Night: Miller v Benitez

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Green vs. Miller Betting Odds

UFC Fight Night: Turner v Green

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How Green Wins

Bobby Green is a sharpshooter. Even late in his career, he’s still tremendously quick with great reaction time, two traits that are hugely beneficial in controlling distance and picking off his foes with sharp counters. In addition, Green’s always been an underrated wrestler, able to hold his own against everyone not-named Islam Makhachev.

Speed kills, and per usual, it’s Green’s great advantage and key to victory in this fight. Jim Miller is an aggressive Southpaw who likes to pressure and fire counters in combination. His stance will make Green’s jab a bit more difficult to land, but fortunately, Green can adjust by working his own right-handed jab more often.

It shouldn’t be hard to bait Miller forward — that’s his natural inclination. Green’s goal is to be first and third in combination, meaning he pokes Miller with a jab/quick cross, evades or blocks the return fire, then sticks Miller with two more punches before exiting safely. If Green is both initiating and finishing exchanges, he’s going to rack up a ton of points, and the speed differential only grows as the slower fight takes more and more shots.

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev v Walker 2

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How Miller Wins

Miller comes for blood. “A-10” found knockout power late in his career, which has served as the perfect compliment to his high-level jiu-jitsu. Despite his age, Miller looks as durable and well-conditioned as ever, able to push the pace and stay in the face of young, dangerous opposition.

Slowing Green down a bit is Miller’s key to victory. In recent years, Green’s famous durability has declined to more human levels, and Miller certainly hits hard enough to stun him. The problem will be finding his chin without getting touched up in the process.

Miller’s solution should be kicks and body work. Miller has a great left low kick, which he’ll fire to the inner thigh against Orthodox opponents and low calf against fellow Southpaws. Green switches stances, so Miller should hammer both targets, punctuating combinations (even if they miss) with that low left leg blast.

In addition, Green relies a lot of head movement. While he’s slipping and rolling, the torso remains a fairly static target. In the words of Ray Longo, Miller would be well-advised to “punch a hole in his f—king chest.”

UFC Fight Night: Dawson v Green

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Green vs. Miller Prediction

This is a great match up, and each man has a clear avenue to victory.

Though Green has suffered more losses than Miller in the last few years, he’s also been fighting a higher level of competition. Dating back to 2020, Green has only lost to ranked Lightweights, and he looked quite good in several of those fights, such as the back-and-forth brawl versus Rafael Fiziev.

Conversely, Miller has mostly been feasting on unranked opposition. I love watching Miller knock out Contender Series randoms as much as the next guy, but I cannot help but feel that Green’s recent record would be STELLAR if he were facing the same opponents as “A-10.”

Green has been fighting at a higher level for a while, and I think he demonstrates the difference at Miller’s expense.

Prediction: Bobby Green victory (-195)

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