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The AI model must be picking up on something in the lower-resolution data that allows it to make predictions about storm intensity, but the researchers don\u2019t know what. \u201cIt\u2019s a black box at the end of the day, but that gives physicists a signal that something is happening that was not previously understood,\u201d Alet says.<\/p>\n
The model doesn\u2019t just spit out one prediction; it produces a range of potential scenarios for a developing storm. This helps to capture any potential \u201cbutterfly effect,\u201d says Alet, where a small deviation from a trend could lead to much bigger changes down the line. Forecasters can use these outputs, alongside those of other models, to inform their predictions about how a storm system will likely unfold. Last year, the AI model created 50 scenarios per storm; now, it generates 1,000.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s something that, with our computing power, we simply can\u2019t do with our existing numerical models,\u201d Musgrave says.<\/p>\n
Brennan says DeepMind\u2019s model is a great new tool in forecasters\u2019 toolbox but emphasizes that it\u2019s one of many. \u201cThere\u2019s no guarantee that one model, because it did well last year or really did well for this particular storm, is necessarily going to be the best model for the next season or the next storm,\u201d he says. The human element, he adds, is still critical. \u201cA hurricane is not just a track or an intensity forecast,\u201d he says. \u201cIt requires experts to translate that into what the impacts are going to be\u2014and it\u2019s the impacts that kill people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Google DeepMind also announced that it is open-sourcing the WeatherNext models used during hurricane season so that researchers can use and improve on them. Alet is hopeful that opening the models up to the research community could help uncover fresh insights into how cyclones work.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m very excited about scientific discovery,\u201d he says. \u201cI think AI is giving us new tools to poke into the laws of the universe.\u201d<\/p>\n
This story originally appeared on wired.com.<\/p>\n