\n<\/p>\n
UFC Vegas 121<\/strong> happens this weekend (Sat., Sept. 26, 2026) inside META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is our first trip to the warehouse since last month (Aug. 8, 2026) \u2026 and this might be the promotion\u2019s worst card of all time.<\/p>\n Regardless, outside of UFC Vegas 121\u2019s main event, the card is filled with guys and gals on long losing streaks, extended time on the sidelines \u2014 or both! There are very few fighters here who have any name value outside of a very small group of people who watch every single fight.<\/p>\n The co-main event, for example, is Rodolfo Vieira<\/strong> vs. Robert Bryczek<\/strong>. The rest of the main card includes two The Ultimate Fighter (TUF)<\/em> Finale bouts and also Brady Hiestand<\/strong> vs. Rinya Nakamura<\/strong>. The best the \u2019Prelims\u2019 have to offer is Montel Jackson <\/strong>vs. Ricky Simon<\/strong> and Norma Dumont<\/strong> vs. Ailin Perez<\/strong>. It\u2019s rough, folks.<\/p>\n As always, there\u2019s lots to bet on this card and we\u2019ve got odds for all the fights below:<\/p>\n What is the origin of your username here on MMA Mania?<\/p>\n Mine is pretty obvious. And, honestly, I can’t remember the tag I used before I started writing at SBNation some ten years ago. Elsewhere I use the tag ‘timespyre’ mostly because it’s not taken anywhere and I kinda hate putting numbers and underscores into things. And I like it because it’s not clear if it means time spyre (like spire) or time’s pyre. And it’s got Tim in it.<\/p>\n I’ve probably used Timbo Slice somewhere, too…<\/p>\n Enough about me, though, tell me the story of your name!<\/p>\n Rec 9<\/span><\/span>CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReply<\/span><\/span><\/span>Read 93 replies<\/span><\/p>\n Raul Rosas Jr. gets his first main event at UFC Vegas 121. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Rosas Jr. <\/strong>is coming off a decision win over Rob Font<\/strong> in March (and some grappling side quests). That\u2019s his fifth UFC win in a row, following his surprise loss to Christian Rodriguez<\/strong> in 2023. His win streak includes a decision over Vince Morales<\/strong> and submission over Ricky Turcios<\/strong> (see that here<\/strong>).<\/p>\n On the flip side, Barcelos<\/strong>, 39, is on a heck of a run. He\u2019s won five in a row, including three fights as the underdog. His biggest upset was over Payton Talbott<\/strong>, when he was +710 (more on that \u201cFraud Check\u201d here). That doesn\u2019t seem that shocking given the year we\u2019ve had. His other underdog wins were over Montel Jackson<\/strong> and Ricky Simon<\/strong> (who fight each other on the undercard).<\/p>\n Indeed, 2026 really likes guys like Barcelos, huh? We\u2019ve seen so many underdogs win this year and also lots of older fighters turn back younger opponents. Maybe that\u2019s why the odds are so close, despite Rosas Jr. being one of the more liked big prospects in the sport.<\/p>\n Barcelos has definitely made himself hard to count out of a fight. But, I\u2019m wondering if this is a bridge too far for the Brazilian. His amazing late career resurgence can only go so far and it\u2019s likely going to fall off a cliff very soon.<\/p>\n Rosas Jr. has youth and size on his side. And Barcelos no longer has surprise as a weapon. I think he really benefitted from Talbott not taking him seriously. That may have factored in some of the fights since, then, but I\u2019m really not trying to take away from how well he did in those. The man is a tireless bulldog, but I think all his forward pressure will really help Rosas Jr. do what he wants to do: wrap him up, level change, take him down and then grapple.<\/p>\n I think this might look a lot like his fight with Font, where he scored 16 takedowns and spent 10 minutes on top. That was very boring to watch and Rosas Jr. got booed, a lot, throughout.<\/p>\n For this to be a fun fight, I\u2019d love it if Barcelos got off some shots on Rosas and then got on top of him early on. I just don\u2019t see that happening, though.<\/p>\n With this line being so close, despite how much better I think Rosas Jr. is right now, there\u2019s no reason for me to look at anything else other than the moneyline.<\/p>\n Rodolfo Vieira gets the co-main at UFC Vegas 121\u2026 off a loss. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Vieira<\/strong> lost a decision to Eric McConico<\/strong> in his last fight in April. That came six months after his brutal head kick loss to Bo Nickal<\/strong> (see that here<\/strong>). Vieira is now 6-5 in UFC. His last win was a decision over Tresean Gore <\/strong>last year. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace turns 37 on Friday.<\/p>\n Bryczek<\/strong> is also 36. He\u2019s coming off a decision loss to Cam Rowston<\/strong>. His sole UFC win is a technical knockout over the shell of Brad Tavares<\/strong> one year ago. He came to UFC after a three-fight knockout streak in OKTAGON.<\/p>\n Goodness, me. This is a co-main? We\u2019ve got a combined age over 70 and a combined 7-7 UFC record.<\/p>\n I guess I\u2019m picking Bryczek here. Not getting finished by Rowston is the biggest achievement either of these guys have had in the past two years. And Vieira really seems past his best. We never even got to see his best, though, did we? He\u2019s one of many BJJ pros who came over to UFC way too late and just doesn\u2019t have the athleticism and set-ups needed to get mixed martial arts (MMA) natives down to the ground where they can submit them.<\/p>\n Vieira did get McConico down four times, which is the most takedowns he\u2019s ever gotten in a UFC fight. And he did get six and a half minutes of control time. I think it\u2019s a pretty red flag that he, a five-time IBJJ world champion, didn\u2019t manage to turn that into a submission.<\/p>\n Vieira\u2019s takedown percentage is a woeful 22 percent. That\u2019s because his takedowns are extremely telegraphed and they get worse and slower as soon as Vieira gets tired or touched up. I think Bryczek is going to bop Vieira in the nose early and then be able to fend off those takedowns en route to a forgettable decision.<\/p>\n Be honest, are you skipping UFC Vegas 121?<\/p>\n Closes in 3 days \u2022 37 total votes<\/span>View results<\/p>\n Yep.Nope, watching the whole thingKinda, I’ll watch some.Rec 1<\/span><\/span>CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReply<\/span><\/span><\/span>Read 12 replies<\/span><\/p>\n UFC Vegas 121 hosts the latest TUF finale fights. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Osmanli<\/strong> is just 22-years-old and already 10-1. Before TUF<\/em>, he was fighting in UAE Warriors, which is not a bad organization at all. He made his debut in 2019 at just 15. He submitted 30-year-old former LFA champion Artem Belakh<\/strong> during TUF<\/em>.<\/p>\n Akylbek Uulu<\/strong>, meanwhile, is 23 and 10-3. He\u2019s also been fighting since he was a teenager. He\u2019s fought in ONE, losing twice \u2014 both by stoppage. He beat 30-year-old former CFFC champ Sean Mora<\/strong> during his time on the show.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t watch TUF<\/em>. I stopped watching during the live season with Michael Chiesa<\/strong>. And I hate these TUF<\/em> finale fights. Even when TUF<\/em> was relevant, performance on the show was not a good indicator of how a fighter would perform in UFC (for better or worse). TUF<\/em> environment is just too weird to use as a reliable tool for guessing how these fighters will do in the real world \u2026 or in their finale fights.<\/p>\n For that reason, I always stay away from these bouts. Let me see what these guys are like under real conditions first.<\/p>\n Osmanli is the favorite here and I won\u2019t argue that. His record in UAE Warriors is worth some respect and, as you can see in that pick, he\u2019s got a lot of size over Akylbek Uulu (that\u2019s going to be fun when I\u2019m live-blogging on Saturday).<\/p>\n Tina Black is one half of the other TUF final at UFC Vegas 121. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Amaya<\/strong> is undefeated as a professional with a career spent entirely in Combate. Her best win there was her first round finish over Japanese veteran, Megumi Sugimoto<\/strong>. She finished Gigi Canuto<\/strong> (who lost her proper debut in August) on TUF<\/em> to book this final fight.<\/p>\n Black<\/strong> (a.k.a. Valesca Silva<\/strong>) is a veteran of Invicta. She defeated some veterans over there in the form of Yulia Ostroverkhova<\/strong> and Liz Tracy<\/strong>. She lost to Piera Rodriguez<\/strong> on Contender Series<\/em> back in 2021. She has a win over Jilia Polastri <\/strong>from her early Shooto days. She got to the final with a win over Delphine Benouaich<\/strong> (who won in her proper UFC debut earlier this month).<\/p>\n As I said, I don\u2019t watch TUF<\/em>. I do have respect for Black\u2019s win over Benouaich, though, given how Benouaich looked in Paris (turning Sofia Montenegro<\/strong> into a bloody mess). I think the quality of her opponents, even before TUF<\/em>, make her so-so win-loss record more impressive than Amaya\u2019s undefeated record against lesser knowns.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll pick her, but \u2014 again \u2014 I\u2019m preaching caution when it comes to fights from TUF<\/em>.<\/p>\n Rinya Nakamura is a big favorite at UFC Vegas 121. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Hiestand<\/strong> hasn\u2019t competed since June 2024. That when he got a \u201cPerformance of the Night\u201d bonus for submitting Garrett Armfield<\/strong>. That was his third UFC win in a row, though none of the guys he beat have fought in the Octagon since 2024 either, though.<\/p>\n Nakamura<\/strong> hasn\u2019t fought in a year. His last appearance was a win, though. He stopped Nathan Fletcher<\/strong> with a body kick (see it here<\/strong>). Fletcher has since moved back to Cage Warriors. Before that, he lost, as -600 favorite, to Muin Gafarov<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Nakamura is an elite wrestler and the striking seemed to have turned a corner in his last fight. In his loss to Gafarov, he got hurt early and seemed scared for the rest of the fight. That wasn\u2019t a good look, but I\u2019m not sure if Hiestand can make history repeat itself. Only three of his eight wins are (technical) knockouts.<\/p>\n Hiestand is more of a grappler, but his wrestling is a few notches below Nakamura\u2019s (who is a former junior world champion and multiple time national medallist). Hiestand\u2019s ground game is still good, though. That\u2019s why I\u2019m looking at the over here. I think this fight will see a lot of Nakamura on top, but he won\u2019t be able to seal the deal there.<\/p>\n Rodolfo Bellato is in the featured prelim at UFC Vegas 121. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n Bellato<\/strong> finished hot prospect, Luke Fernandez<\/strong>, in the first round in March (see that here<\/strong>). He really needed that after being on a very weird run. Before the Fernandez fight, he lost a boring decision to Navajo Stirling<\/strong>. And before that, he had his strange \u201cNo Contest\u201d with Paul Craig<\/strong>. That\u2019s when he seemed to fake being hurt from an illegal blow. I think he might have been play acting to get a point deduction and just did too good a job of it. And before that, he fought to a draw with Jimmy Crute<\/strong>. That all gives Bellato one of the strangest records in UFC today at 2-1-1 1 NC.<\/p>\n Edwards<\/strong> came in on ultra short notice to fight Modestas Bukauskas <\/strong>(stepping in for Bellato, in fact). Edwards, whose record is very so-so, fought better than expected and ended up losing just a split decision.<\/p>\n I think the odds are being a little disrespectful to Bellato here. Edwards has never won at UFC\u2019s level and the only reason he looked good last time, in my opinion, is because of Bukauskas having one of his semi-regular off nights.<\/p>\n I think Bellato is too athletic and hard-hitting for Edwards and I think it\u2019s likely he gets a finish here.<\/p>\n Harrell looks for his first Octagon win at UFC Vegas 121. Jack Gorman\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Harrell<\/strong> was a short-notice opponent for Jack Della Maddalena<\/strong> in 2023. But, he fell out of that fight after medical screening revealed a brain issue that would require surgery. After returning to action, he won four fights, improving his record to 10-0, which included a win over Melvin Guillard<\/strong>! He nearly killed a man at LFA 224 to get re-signed to UFC. In his first fight back, he was brutalized by Jacobe Smith<\/strong> for a first round stoppage loss (see it here<\/strong>).<\/p>\n Brener<\/strong> has had some fun fights in UFC, but not a lot of wins. He\u2019s on a three-fight losing skid, with losses to Esteban Ribovics<\/strong>, Joel Alvarez<\/strong> and Myktybek Orolbai<\/strong>. Those were all wars. He came into UFC with a shock win over Zubaira Tukhugov<\/strong> (he just beat him in a grappling bout, too).<\/p>\n This would be a great fight for LFA to book.<\/p>\n I somewhat like Brener in this fight. He\u2019s got that dawg in him, as the kids like to say. Harrell has been good outside UFC, but he\u2019s still pretty untested at this level. I think this one could be our \u201cFight of the Night\u201d and, in that kind of situation, I like Brener\u2019s chances of coming out on top. He\u2019s extremely tough and he has four inches of reach on Harrell.<\/p>\n Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n Montel Jackson lands back on the Prelims for UFC Vegas 121. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Jackson<\/strong> blew his chances of being a Bantamweight contender with split decision losses to Deiveson Figueiredo <\/strong>and Raoni Barcelos<\/strong>. I scored both of those against him. He was on a six-fight win streak, with mostly decisions, before that.<\/p>\n Simon<\/strong> fought to a draw with Adrian Yanez<\/strong> in March. He was lucky to not get a decision loss there. He was also close to being finished at the final bell. He was still wobbly when they read the official decision. Before that, he took a loss to Barcelos. Those results ruined the momentum he had from beating Cameron Smotherman<\/strong> and knocking out Javid Basharat<\/strong> (see it here<\/strong>).<\/p>\n Simon is really going to need to get some takedowns to stand a chance to be successful here. He\u2019s giving up six inches of range and he\u2019s taller, too. With Jackson\u2019s style that\u2019s really going to help him snipe away at Simon from range. If Simon can\u2019t get inside and get this fight to the ground then he risks getting that chin touched up again, like he did against Yanez.<\/p>\n Jackson is as good a technical striker as Yanez, but his problem has been his lack of meanness and killer instinct. If he can up the intensity in his striking, then he might be able to claw his way back up to relevancy. I think he probably gets the win over Simon here, but stuffing takedowns and landing plenty of strikes at range.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t think he\u2019s ready to turn up the heat, though, and push for a big finish.<\/p>\n This might be one of the more popular fights at UFC Vegas 121. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Dumont<\/strong> dropped a decision to Joselyne Edwards<\/strong> in her last fight. She\u2019d won six in a row before that. Her last three wins are all against released\/retired fighters, though: Ketlen Vieira<\/strong>, Irene Aldana<\/strong> and Germaine de Randamie<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Perez<\/strong> is one of those few fighters on the card on a win streak. She\u2019s won her last six. Her most recent was over Macy Chiasson<\/strong>. She\u2019s also got a win over Edwards<\/strong> (who went on a five fight winning streak after that).<\/p>\n This is striker versus wrestler and our striker is a lot bigger than the wrestler. I don\u2019t hate that for the wrestler (Perez), in this situation, though. I think she\u2019ll have a lot of leg to attack with her takedowns and I think, despite being shorter, she\u2019s about as strong as Dumont.<\/p>\n Perez is one of the best takedown artists in the women\u2019s division, landing a very high 4.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dumont has good takedown defense, on paper, at 71 percent, but she\u2019s fought mostly strikers.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll take Perez, thinking she can drag down and frustrate Dumont. Her striking defense (only 1.58 significant strikes absorbed per-minute) should keep her out of trouble on the feet, too.<\/p>\n Alatengheili takes a road game at UFC Vegas 121. Josh Hedges\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Castaneda<\/strong> fought to a draw with Mark Vologdin<\/strong>. Before that, he lost decisions to Chris Gutierrez<\/strong> and Daniel Marcos<\/strong>. He\u2019s now 4-4-1 in UFC.<\/p>\n Alatengheili<\/strong> is coming off a loss to Da\u2019Mon Blackshear<\/strong>. He\u2019s 5-3-1 in UFC.<\/p>\n Castaneda has a lot of size on Alatengheili. He\u2019s only one inch taller, but he has a sizeable reach advantage and he\u2019s just a lot more thickly muscled. I think this is going to be a low intensity fight in both the striking and grappling department. I think Castaneda will prove he\u2019s a deserved favorite in those wrestling exchanges, where his strength advantage will help out a lot.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll take the over for marginally better odds.<\/p>\n Sedriques Dumas returns to UFC to fight at UFC Vegas 121. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n Gall<\/strong> is on a four fight losing streak and is now 7-7 as a pro. His last fight was in November, 2024, when he was KO\u2019d by Ramiz Brahimaj<\/strong> (see that here<\/strong>). A TKO loss to Mike Mallott<\/strong> is also part of that run. Gall\u2019s last win was back in 2021. He doesn\u2019t have any wins against anyone currently on the UFC roster.<\/p>\n Dumas<\/strong> lost his last two fights by submission, one to Jackson McVey<\/strong> and one to Donte Johnson<\/strong>. Before that he fought to a no contest with Zach Reese<\/strong>, after a groin shot rendered him unable to continue. And before that he was TKO\u2019d by Michal Oleksijczuk<\/strong> (see that here<\/strong>). That run got him released from UFC, but he was re-signed for this fight \u2026 for some reason.<\/p>\n Did we really need this fight?<\/p>\n Gall\u2019s chin is suspect, but so is Dumas\u2019 submission defense. The line is 1.5 and I think that\u2019s too risky for an under play. I\u2019ll take Gall, but only because I have zero faith in Dumas\u2019 striking.<\/p>\n Yazmin Jauregui returns at UFC Vegas 121. Christian Petersen\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Demopoulos<\/strong> is on a three-fight losing streak. Those losses are to Jamey-Lyn Horth<\/strong>, Talita Alencar<\/strong> and Jaqueline Amorim<\/strong>. She\u2019s now 5-5 in UFC.<\/p>\n We haven\u2019t seen Jauregui<\/strong> since she was clubbed and subbed by Ketlen Souza<\/strong> in Sphere back in Sept. 2024 (see it here<\/strong>). She\u2019s 3-2 in UFC now with her other loss being a technical knockout to Denise Gomes<\/strong> (see that here<\/strong>).<\/p>\n Man, we\u2019ve got to stop giving fighters -1000 odds. I\u2019m struggling to see the point of doing that with a fighter coming off a two-year layoff and a brutal, aura-sapping, loss. This is also a weird match-up. Demopolous struggles against fellow grapplers and Jauregui struggles against fellow strikers.<\/p>\n I\u2019m just going to fade the massive favorite (like I did last week!).<\/p>\n Will the Year of the Underdog\/Unc continue at UFC Vegas 121? Josh Hedges\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a couple of long shots for Saturday night\u2019s action …<\/p>\n With Vegas cooling on Rosas Jr., there\u2019s pretty high odds on this prop bet. Admittedly, Rosas Jr. has looked more blanket than killer in UFC. But, maybe he really shows up in his first main event.<\/p>\n I really think Vieira is on a steep decline at the moment. Bryczek packed a wallop in OKTAGON, maybe he can do it here in the Octagon.<\/p>\n I\u2019m struggling to find anything interesting on this card. TUF<\/em> is weird, though. Maybe both underdogs win that piece of glass (do they still give that out?). If they do, that\u2019s a pretty big return.<\/p>\n Let’s play: Numbered UFC event or Fight Night?<\/p>\n The Paramount deal killed PPVs, eliminated the need to truly promote numbered events, and guaranteed the UFC billions. Dana White routinely said money makes fighters lazy, but is the opposite happening now for the UFC?<\/p>\n This has been trending badly since the ESPN deal, but I’d argue it’s even worse now. Here’s a test: A year ago, would you have properly guessed which were numbered events or fight nights in this current stretch of headliners?<\/p>\n Buckley vs. Malott<\/p>\n Allen vs. Duncan<\/p>\n Silva vs. Wang<\/p>\n Rosas vs. Barcelos<\/p>\n Van vs. Pantoja<\/p>\n Silva vs. Delgado<\/p>\n Hooker vs. Parnasse<\/p>\n Nurmagomedov vs. Song<\/p>\n Hernandes vs. Rodrigues<\/p>\n Rec 7<\/span><\/span>CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReply<\/span><\/span><\/span>UFC Vegas 121 Main Card Money Line Odds<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Raul Rosas Jr. (-185) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+154)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: <\/strong>Raul Rosas Jr. moneyline (-162)<\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Rodolfo Vieira (-155) vs. Robert Bryczek (+130)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Robert Bryczek moneyline (+130)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Mehemmedeli Osmanli (-290) vs. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (+235)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Mehemmedeli Osmanli moneyline (-290)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Melissa Amaya (+180) vs. Tina Black (-218)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Tina Black moneyline (-218)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Brady Hiestand (+285) vs. Rinya Nakamura (-360)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+145)<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
UFC Vegas 121 \u2018Prelims\u2019 Under Card Odds<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Rodolfo Bellato (-180) vs. Christian Edwards (+150)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Rodolfo Bellato moneyline (-180)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Josiah Harrell (-135) vs. Elves Brener (+114)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Elves Brener moneyline (+114)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
\n
Montel Jackson (-198) vs. Ricky Simon (+164)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Montel Jackson moneyline (-198)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Norma Dumont (+114) vs. Ailin Perez (-135)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Ailin Perez moneyline (-135)<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
John Castaneda (-325) vs. Alatengheili (+260)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-315)<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Mickey Gall (-166) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+140)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Mickey Gall moneyline (-166)<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Vanessa Demopoulos (+675) vs. Yazmin Jauregui (-1050)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Best bet: Vanessa Demopoulos moneyline (+675)<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
UFC Vegas 121 Long Shots!<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Raul Rosas Jr. by Submission (+300)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Robert Bryczek to win by KO\/TKO\/DQ in Round 1 (+400)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Two-bet parlay: Melissa Amaya and Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (+854)<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n