Gable Steveson enters UFC 331 as one of the night’s biggest favorites against Sean Sharaf, with the heavyweight bout set for Saturday, September 19, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The market gives Steveson roughly a 91% chance to win, making Sharaf a long-shot upset pick.
Casino Ontario has Gable Steveson installed as a -2500 favorite against Sean Sharaf, who returns at +1000 for the UFC 331 heavyweight fight. That price makes Steveson’s moneyline difficult to use on its own, as a $25 wager would profit just $1, while Sharaf would need to score an upset that the market views as highly unlikely. Steveson by KO/TKO is priced at -400 and looks like the cleaner betting route given his 4-0 MMA record with four knockout wins; a $40 wager would return $10 in profit if he gets another finish.
Elsewhere Steveson is listed around -1800 on the moneyline, while Sharaf sits near +1000. In simple terms, a bettor would need to risk $1,800 to profit $100 on Steveson at that price, while a $100 Sharaf wager would return about $1,000 in profit if he pulls off the upset. The gap shows how strongly the market favors the former Olympic wrestling champion, but it also creates a problem for bettors: Steveson’s straight-up price offers little upside.
The better angle is Steveson to win by knockout or technical knockout, with a first-round finish the most logical method call. He is 4-0 as a professional MMA fighter, and all four wins have come by knockout or TKO. His UFC debut against Elisha Ellison ended in the opening round, when Steveson finished with knees and punches at 2:31. His three earlier MMA wins also ended in Round 1, including a 24-second knockout of Kevin Hein.
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf Odds: UFC 331 Betting Breakdown, Pick and Method
Sharaf brings a 4-2 MMA record into the matchup, but he is 0-2 in the UFC and has been stopped by knockout in both promotional appearances. He has shown he can throw at a high pace early, but the available tape-based analysis points to a recurring issue: his output and resistance have declined once opponents establish pressure. That is a poor setup against a heavyweight who can threaten takedowns, clinch control and damaging ground shots from the first exchange.
Steveson’s wrestling credentials explain much of the number beside his name. The 26-year-old won Olympic gold at 125 kilograms in Tokyo, collected NCAA Division I heavyweight titles at Minnesota and arrived in MMA with a level-change game few heavyweights can match. He has not needed to lean fully on that background yet because his early fights have ended quickly on the feet, but it remains his clearest route to control.
The safest prediction is Gable Steveson to win, but the moneyline is difficult to justify at -1800 or shorter. The implied return does not match the risk in a heavyweight fight, where one mistake can erase the favorite’s edge. A more practical bet is Steveson by KO/TKO, preferably with an added look at Steveson to win in Round 1 if the number is attractive. His four-fight finishing streak, Sharaf’s UFC stoppage losses and Steveson’s ability to create immediate pressure all point in the same direction.