UFC Vegas 122 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 17, 2026) inside META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event for this one is Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan in the Middleweight division. That’s not a bad fight, but the card — as a whole — might be one of the worst we’ve ever put on.
The co-main event is Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert. Now you can go and Google who those two are. The main card also hosts Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza, Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III and Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi.
The featured ‘Prelim’ (if that’s still a thing) is Julius Walke vs. Gerald Meerschaert. The undercard also has Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan and RJ Harris vs. Allen Frye Jr.
There may not be quality, but there’s always quantity, so that means there are lots of fights to bet on this Saturday. Check out those odds below:
FIGHT STREAK RESULTS FOR UFC 332!!!! Get your pick in for UFC Vegas 122
Adam Wagner and Underdog Fan are still tied atop our leader board. It was a pretty good week for streaks, with only a few folks getting snapped (me included). There was a lot of variety among the picks last week, but at least of few of you were enjoy Pinas on Saturday night.
Moving onto this week, here’s what we’re looking at:
UFC Vegas 122 Main Event On Paramount+:
185 lbs.: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC Vegas 122 Main Card on Paramount+ (8 p.m. ET):
155 lbs.: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
155 lbs.: Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
145 lbs.: Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
185 lbs.: Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert
135 lbs.: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
UFC Vegas 122 Prelims Card on Paramount+ (5 p.m. ET):
155 lbs.: Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
170 lbs.: Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan
205 lbs.: Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro
265 lbs.: RJ Harris vs. Allen Frye Jr.
135 lbs.: Darya Zheleznyakova vs. Alice Pereira
125 lbs.: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto
Give me Andre Fili to out-tough Kai Kamaka III.
Oh, something weird to share with you all, too. Some site, which is definitely using AI to scrape and produce content, has picked up on our little fight streaks came. Check it out: https://boxingnews.com/news/mma-mania-ufc-332-fight-streak
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UFC Vegas 122 Main Card Money Line Odds
Brendan Allen will try and keep his run going at UFC Vegas 122. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Brendan Allen (-142) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (+120)
Allen’s eight fight winning streak was snapped by Nassourdine Imavov in 2024. He then lost to Anthony Fernandez in the following year. Since then, though, he’s reeled off three wins in a row and looked more aggressive than ever. His last win was over Edmen Shabazyan in June. Before that he beat the snot out of Reinier de Ridder to force a retirement (see that here). And before that he jump-started the downfall of Marvin Vettori.
Duncan lost a decision to Gregory Rodrigues in 2024. He’s won five straight since then, though. The first of that run was a very dull decision over Andrey Pulyaev. But after that he looked very aggressive against Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio, finishing them with spinning attacks. After that he dominated Roman Dolidze and somewhat cruised to a win over Jared Cannonier (where Cannonier finally started to look his age). That Cannonier win, from July, was his most recent fight.
This card is terrible. Maybe one of the worst ever. But I’m not mad at this fight at all. It makes a lot of sense, when you consider the division, and I think these two are pretty evenly matched.
I’m siding with Allen here, though. I think his cardio and experience against top contenders will help him a lot. Duncan has looked good lately, but it’s been against some guys who really faded down the stretch. I have no doubts in Allen’s ability to go five rounds and be fresh at the start of the fifth.
Duncan has never gone five rounds before. And he’s a guy who carries a lot of muscle on his frame and he also puts a lot of energy into his spinning attacks. I think there’s a chance he might fade down the stretch, especially if he’s forced to fight the pace that Allen wants to go at.
I think Allen is going to be trying to stick tight to Duncan and tire him out on the fence or, in a best case scenario for him, on the ground. We saw Pulyaev almost succeed in doing this to Duncan, but Duncan was able to do enough when in space to bank the decision.
Over the long haul, I think Duncan’s explosive attacks will get less and less the longer this goes and Allen’s death by a thousand cuts approach will get him the decision.
Best bet: Brendan Allen moneyline (-142)
Matheus Camilo gets his first UFC co-main event at UFC Vegas 122. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Matheus Camilo (-198) vs. Jai Herbert (+164)
Camilo is still mostly known as that guy who beat that guy who begged Dana White for a fight at a press conference. Winning that fight earned Camilo a contract and he’s gone 2-1 since then. In his last fight he silenced the crowd in Baku by finishing Nazim Sadykhov in 91 seconds (see it here).
Herbert got a first round TKO over Mandel Nallo in April, in hostile territory (though I would argue that Canada is probably much more friendly than Azerbaijan). Before that he lost a split decision to Chris Padilla. He’s quietly fought ten times in UFC, but is yet to put together two wins in a row.
Camilo is supposed to be a wrestler, but he stunned Sadykhov with a huge straight right. That was pretty impressive. But this is still a classic wrestler vs. striker match-up for him.
Camilo has been very active with his takedowns thus far. He’s landed five on Viacheslav Borshchev for his first win in the promotion. He’s probably going to go with that kind of gameplan here again, looking to takedown and tire his opponent.
Herbert has good takedown defense on paper, at 66 percent. And the context around that number is pretty good, too. He shutout Padilla on six attempts. Other than when he met Renato Moicano in his second ever UFC fight, he’s never been taken down more than twice in a bout.
So I don’t think Camilo is going to have this fight completely his own way. I’m unsure if Herbert will be able to capitalize on having all that time standing, though. He’s creeping up to 40 and is thirteen years older than Camilo.
Camilo’s youth and athleticism advantage might help him out with those takedowns. And he might be faster and sharper than Herbert on the feet. I don’t think that leads to another surprising finish for Camilo, but it could mean that he gets the better of some exchanges and, at the very least, prevents Herbert from doing any serious damage.
The round total is 1.5 here and that feels very low. I think this probably goes to a decision.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-180)
Ketlen Souza brings her heavy hands to UFC Vegas 122. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Lupita Godinez (-225) vs. Ketlen Souza (+185)
Godinez was dominated by Tatiana Suarez in her last fight, losing by second round submission (see it here). That killed the moment she put together through wins over Jessica Andrade and Julia Polastri.
Souza scored a huge head kick KO in June, over Ariane Carnelossi (see it here). Before that she had a decision over Bruna Brasil. She’s 4-3 in UFC and that includes her club-and-sub upset win over Yazmin Jauregui in 2024.
I really enjoy Souza’s fights. She has a bit of Diaz brother in her and she can really crack. I’m not sure how much opportunity she’ll get to do that against Godinez, though. Godinez has rag-dolled anyone who is not a high level wrestler and grappler. Her 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes is very high and her 42 percent takedown accuracy is pretty good, too. Souza’s 53 percent takedown defense is OK, but if Piera Rodriguez can take her down seven times then I think Godinez (a national level wrestler in Canada) can probably do it ten times.
Souza’s best defense for that will likely be trying to land big shots as Godinez changes levels. It’s high risk and high reward and I think Godinez is smart enough to avoid that en route to getting her takedowns.
Best bet: Lupita Godinez moneyline (-225)
Andre Fili is one half of an action fight at UFC Vegas 122. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Andre Fili (-155) vs. Kai Kamaka III (+130)
This will be Fili’s 28th bout in UFC. Doesn’t that make you feel old? He’s 13-13-1 after back-to-back losses to Vinicius Oliveira and Jose Delgado. The loss to Oliveira was a brutal TKO (see it here). That was only the fourth time Fili had been stopped by strikes (in 39 fights). He’s still only 36.
Kamaka III had a fire-fight with Luke Riley in July and lost by standing TKO in the first round (see it here). Before that he got a split decision win over Dakota Hope. This is his second stint with the promotion. He had a very good run in Bellator and PFL before coming back to the Octagon.
This should be a fun fight with both guys having their moments. I’m with the oddmakers in believing that Fili’s experience and strength of schedule means he’s probably seen everything Kamaka’s done before. And I don’t think Kamaka has the power to hurt Fili on the feet or the know-how to do anything on the ground against him.
I think these two will largely be trading short combos on the feet. If we’re clinching and wrestling, I think Fili has a considerable advantage.
All that makes it hard for me to see a path for Kamaka, so I’ve got to go with the veteran.
Best bet: Andre Fili moneyline (-155)
Malcolm Wellmaker will try and turn things around at UFC Vegas 122. Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC
Malcolm Wellmaker (-230) vs. Otari Tanzilovi (+190)
Wellmaker had looked like he was part of this new wave of killers we’ve seeing landing big KOs week-in-week-out. Then he got schooled by Ethyn Ewing (who was coming in on short notice) and submitted by Juan Diaz (see that here). Those losses made us quickly forget his early KOs wins over Kris Moutinho and Cameron Saaiman.
Tanzilovi made his debut in June and lost a decision to Shane Collins. He was on Contender Series in 2024, but lost a split decision to Josias Musasa.
Tanzilovi’s striking was non-existent against Collins. He was so behind on the feet that he couldn’t win a round despite getting five takedowns and over four minutes of control time. His lack of firepower on the feet and activity on the ground means, I think, he’s going to be taking too much punishment on the feet.
I think Wellmaker likely gets a big finish here. He certainly needs one if he thinks he can crash into that increasingly stacked Bantamweight party.
Best bet: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
UFC Vegas 122 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Julius Walker draws a veteran at UFC Vegas 122. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Julius Walker (-278) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+225)
Walker added his name to the growing list of Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev victims in June, losing in just eight seconds (see that here). I took longer than eight seconds to write that sentence. Before that he was finished by Dustin Jacoby (see it here). He’s now 1-3 in UFC.
This is Meerschaert’s 27th fight with the promotion. His record in the Octagon currently stands at 12-14. He has lost his last five bouts. Remember when three in a row used to be a career death sentence in UFC? Last time out he dropped a decision to Jacob Malkoun. His other recent losses include a submission by Kyle Daukaus and a TKO from Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Sadly, Walker has looked a little clueless in there since joining UFC. Before his eight second KO loss the broadcast was talking about his striking improvements and mindset shift. It all ended up feeling quite tragic once he was blitzed out of there by the very good Yakhyaev.
Meerschaert’s best years are way beyond him. But he does know what he’s doing in there. He’s just not as capable of doing it close to how he used to.
This fight is a big toss up for me and I’m surprised to see Walker this big a favorite against anyone on the roster. The round total is set at 1.5 and I think that’s quite low for two guys who have struggled to finish opponents lately.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+100)
Will Francisco Prado have another bloodbath at UFC Vegas 122? Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Francisco Prado (-105) vs. Ismael Bonfim (-115)
Prado lost a bloody bout with Charles Radtke back in April. That was his fourth decision loss to a row. His opponents on that stretch include Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber. His last win was his TKO over Ottman Azaitar in 2023.
Bonfim has struggled, while his brother Gabriel has soared, lately. He’s lost three in a row, but they were all stoppages. Last time out he was submitted in the first round by Axel Sola (see it here). Before that he was TKO’d by Chris Padilla (see that here).
Usually this would be a loser leaves town match, but it feels like UFC are doing their best to keep as many fighters out of Paul and Coker’s hands as possible right now.
I think Prado is the better fighter, on a technical level, but he just struggles to really impose himself in fights and convince the judges that he’s doing enough to win a round. Bonfim is a little more chaotic with higher highs and lower lows, but at least he’s trying to do things that are noticeable in there. If Bonfim were more durable, then I would pick him to eke out a decision.
That durability factor is making me side with Prado, who is very tough. I think he’ll be steady in there and that will be enough to hurt the more wild Bonfim.
Best bet: Francisco Prado moneyline (-105)
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Niko Price un-retired for UFC Vehas 122. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Niko Price (+130) vs. Leon Shahbazyan (-155)
Price retired in the cage at UFC Seattle earlier this year, after he lost in about a minute to Michael Chiesa (see that here). No one really noticed, though. After Chiesa’s video package and retirement speech, Price was left muttering, “what about me?” Seven months later, though, Price is back and perhaps looking to go out on a win.
Shahbazyan, brother to Edmen, might have had one of the worst UFC debuts on the book in June. He looked like someone who had been pulled out of the crowd before he was obliterated by Levan Chokheli in 23 seconds (see that here).
This is just a terrible fight. Price has had a career that I don’t think Shahbazyan will get anywhere close to replicating. But it’s very hard to trust Price after he just told us all that he doesn’t want to do this anymore. I think it’s even harder to pick Shahbazyan, though, based on that display against Chokheli.
Best bet: Niko Price moneyline (+130)
Brendson Ribeiro is still here! And he’s at UFC Vegas 122. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Felipe Franco (-360) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+285)
Franco came in on short notice, and up a weight class, to debut against Mario Pinto in March. He lost that bout, by decision, but was a surprisingly game opponent. He moved back down Light Heavyweight in July and wrecked Levi Rodrigues Jr. with a second round TKO (see it here).
Ribeiro is still some-how signed to UFC. That’s despite being 2-6 in the promotion and being on a four fight losing skid. He may be getting kept around because his losses have come against top prospects including Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Zhang Mingyang, Oumar Sy and Azamat Murzakanov. Only Yakhyaev remains someone who is projected to be a star in the division.
I’m never going to bet on Ribeiro. I don’t think Franco is anything special, but he fights with a lot of heart and goes forwards. Ribeiro fights without a brain, it seems, so I think Franco will manage to get him down and pound him out. I only have the moneylines right now, but I’ll take the prop bet for Franco finishing this with his fists.
Best bet: Felipe Franco by KO/TKO/DQ (?)
This is what Allen Frye looks like. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Allen Frye Jr. (+230) vs. RJ Harris (-285)
Frye Jr. debuted in UFC in December and lost a grueling decision to Guilherme Pat. He’s seen fights with Max Gimenis and Alvin Hines fall through since then. Before his debut he was 6-0, but hadn’t appeared in any notable organizations.
Harris is 6-0 now. He debuted in July with a first round uppercut finish over Hines (see it here). Before that he won two fights in LFA.
That wasn’t an easy fight for Harris, Hines was coming off a long suspension, but he had shown that he’s a dangerous and very lively Heavyweight. Frye has shown us that he is more of the slow, plodding style of Heavyweight. He got pieced apart by Pat and I think Harris will do the same.
Harris has a long reach, good speed (for a Heavyweight) and power. I’ll go with him getting the finish here. There’s only moneylines out right now, but this is another one where I would take the win by KO/TKO/DQ prop.
Best bet: RJ Harris by KO/TKO/DQ (?)
Alice Pereira will look for her second UFC win at UFC Vegas 122. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Alice Pereira (-142) vs. Daria Zhelezniakova (+120)
Pereira looked great in April, finishing Hailey Cowan with a knee (see it here). That improved her pro record to 6-1. The 20-year-old’s only loss was a split decision to Montse Rendon in her UFC debut.
Zhelezniakova is ten years older than Pereira. She’s only marginally more experienced, though. She’s 10-3 as a pro and 2-2 in UFC. She lost her last fight, by decision, to Melissa Croden. Before that she got the decision over Melissa Mullins.
Pereira, on paper, feels like she has a lot going for her. Her debut seemed like a classic Octagon jitters moment. In the Cowan fight, her size and athleticism all came together. However, no one should get carried away with a win over Cowan, who just retired after losing another by another first round TKO.
Pereira’s ceiling is certainly higher than Zhelezniakova’s. The big question is whether Pereira is good enough, right now, to beat a veteran who has been kinda OK in there lately. I’m going to side with youth here, but I won’t be surprised if Zhelezniakova simply has too much craft for Pereira on Saturday. Even if she loses, though, I think Pereira will eclipse what Zhelezniakova has done in the sport.
Best bet: Alice Pereira moneyline (-142)
Ernesta Kareckaite opens the show at UFC Vegas 122. Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC
Ernesta Kareckaite (+105) vs. Melissa Gatto (-125)
‘Heavy-Handed’ Kareckaite is still looking for her first UFC stoppage (which would be the third stoppage of her 6-2-1 pro career). Last time out she dropped a very fun decision against debutante Regina Tarin. She got the Fight of the Night bonus for that. His two UFC wins are split decisions over Nicolle Caliari and Carli Judice (on Contender Series). The win over Judice is looking very good right now.
Gatto is coming off a majority decision loss to Dione Barbosa in April. That was her first fight in two years. She did win in her prior fight, though, after stopping Tamires Vidal with a punch to the boob (see it here).
Jokes aside, Kareckaite is an above average striker for the division and she helps make fights fun with her willingness to brawl. I’m surprised to see her as the slight underdog. She’s got some size over Gatto and has been far more active lately. I think she’ll be able to pepper away with strikes and do enough to take a decision.
Best bet: Ernesta Kareckaite moneyline (+105)
Will Christian Leroy Duncan rise to the occasion at UFC Vegas 122. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
UFC Vegas 122 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Brendan Allen by TKO (+750)
I’m struggling to find interesting stuff on this card. Allen’s odds for a submission are just +275. I think he’s probably going to be spending a lot of time on Duncan’s back and that the chance for a choke will be there. But what if he manages to flatten him out and just taps on the sides of his head with ground and pound until the ref has to step in?
Andre Fili to Win in Round 2 (+650)
I think Fili is more battle-tested and skilled than Kai Kamaka III. And Kamaka III has pretty leaky defense. I think these two will be trading a lot and that Kamaka is more likely to wear down than Fili is.
Two-bet parlay: Gerald Meerschaert and Ketlen Souza to win (+857)
I’m just getting silly here. Julius Walker hasn’t shown as much at the UFC level and Meerschaert is a very crafty vet. I don’t think it’s impossible that he gets behind Walker and taps him with a choke. And Souza has some of the best power in her division, so I’ll give her a puncher’s chance against Godinez.