JJ Aldrich enters as a sizeable underdog against unbeaten Regina Tarin at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado on Saturday, September 12, at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The betting market has moved toward Tarin since opening, yet Aldrich’s experience and decision-game record create a clear path for an upset.
Tarin is the favorite in the women’s flyweight bout, with the average line sitting around -289. Aldrich is around +235. In practical terms, a $100 stake on Tarin at -289 would return about $34.60 in profit if she wins, while a $100 play on Aldrich at +235 would return $235 in profit.
UFC Betting: Regina Tarin Opens as Favorite Against JJ Aldrich
The opening market was far tighter. Aldrich opened around +182 and Tarin around -268, before the line shifted further toward the 21-year-old Mexican. Current prices vary across the market: Aldrich has been listed from +215 to +260, while Tarin ranges from roughly -245 to -319 with https://offshorebettingappfinder.com and other books. That difference is significant for bettors. At the best available end of the range, Aldrich’s +260 price returns $260 profit on a $100 bet; at +201, the same stake returns only $201.
Tarin brings an 8-0 professional record, a 1-0 UFC mark, and a six-inch height advantage over Aldrich. She is listed at 5-foot-7 with a 66-inch reach, while Aldrich stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach. Both fight from southpaw stance, so the matchup may feature a less usual open-stance look despite the small reach edge for the veteran.
Her UFC debut came in February, when she beat Ernesta Kareckaite by unanimous decision after taking the bout on short notice. The scorecards were 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28. That result extended Tarin‘s unbeaten run and gave bettors a recent three-round sample against UFC-level opposition.
Aldrich, 33, is 15-7 and has competed in the UFC since 2016. Her recent form includes unanimous-decision wins over Jamey-Lyn Horth in April and Andrea Lee in March 2025. She also owns UFC victories over Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Cortney Casey and Montana De La Rosa.
That experience is the central case for the underdog. Aldrich has been through 17 UFC fights, while Tarin has had one. Aldrich has won 12 of her 15 professional fights by decision, and 10 of her UFC victories went to the judges. A controlled fight at range, steady counters and timely wrestling could make this much closer than the price suggests.
For bettors, Tarin by decision fits the market’s expectation of a favorite who wins minutes rather than chases a finish. Aldrich by decision is the underdog route with the clearest statistical logic. The moneyline price makes Aldrich interesting only if a bettor believes her UFC experience, defensive numbers and ability to turn fights into close rounds can outweigh Tarin’s speed and volume. Odds can change before fight night, so any wager should be checked again after weigh-ins.